More than 200 MLB players are currently eligible for arbitration, meaning they are on a team’s 40-man roster and have enough service time to have their salaries determined through the longstanding backward-looking system. At the low end, this includes players who qualify for Super Two status, the exact cutoff for which is not known yet for 2020. The Super Two cutoff typically falls around two years and 130 days (written as 2.130) but has fallen as low as 2.115 last year. The high end of service time would be anyone short of the six years needed to qualify for free agency, even one day shy like Kris Bryant.
Potentially arbitration eligible players have been getting pared from 40-man rosters since the offseason began, but those that remain will be subject to the non-tender deadline. This deadline is at 8pm ET on Wednesday, December 2nd. By that point, teams must inform arbitration-eligible players whether they will receive a non-guaranteed contract for the 2020 season, or else become free agents. Once a player is tendered a contract, the two sides will have another roughly two months to work out salaries before arbitration hearings kick off in February. Non-tendered players immediately become free agents who can sign with another team for any amount. Those will be added to our free agent list and tracker.
There is a general expectation among baseball writers that this year, arbitration eligible players will be cut loose in record numbers due to teams’ financial losses in 2020 and uncertainty for 2021. Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs recently explored recent historical non-tender data, suggesting that the number of players being cut at the deadline already has been on the rise. My guess is that we’ll see a handful of players cut that normally wouldn’t be, but nothing wildly abnormal.
As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially choose not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision at least a 10 percent chance of a non-tender, but this year I’ve included some long shots who are probably less likely than that.
It should also be noted that some of these non-tender candidates will be traded prior to the December 2nd deadline rather than simply cut loose. Some could also be claimed by another team on waivers. Other borderline candidates may be presented with an offer that is notably lower than their projected salary and could accept the “take it or leave it” ultimatum rather than being non-tendered. This is known as a pre-tender contract. Multiyear extensions are another possibility.
Determining arbitration salaries will be especially difficult this offseason, which I’ve written about here. That difficulty also applies to the arbitration salary projections Matt Swartz provides each year for MLBTR, which can be found here. In this list, I’ve provided Matt’s “Method 3” arbitration projections. If you’d like to support our work here at MLBTR, please consider an ad-free subscription. On to our list of non-tender candidates:
Catchers
Curt Casali, Reds ($1.8MM)
Elias Diaz, Rockies ($850K)
Austin Hedges, Indians ($3.0MM)
Omar Narvaez, Brewers ($2.9MM)
Gary Sanchez, Yankees ($5.5MM)
Pedro Severino, Orioles ($1.4MM)
Tony Wolters, Rockies ($2.0MM)
First Basemen
Renato Nunez, Orioles ($2.1MM)
Jose Osuna, Pirates ($1.1MM)
Danny Santana, Rangers ($3.6MM)
Second Basemen
Hanser Alberto, Orioles ($2.6MM)
Johan Camargo, Braves ($1.9MM)
Greg Garcia, Padres ($1.6MM)
Shortstops
Orlando Arcia, Brewers ($2.8MM)
Erik Gonzalez, Pirates ($1.2MM)
Niko Goodrum, Tigers ($1.6MM)
Daniel Robertson, Giants ($1.1MM)
Pat Valaika, Orioles ($1.1MM)
Third Basemen
Kris Bryant, Cubs ($18.6MM)
Travis Shaw, Blue Jays ($4.5MM)
Left Fielders
Tommy Pham, Padres ($8.0MM)
Eddie Rosario, Twins ($9.6MM)
Kyle Schwarber, Cubs ($7.9MM)
Center Fielders
Albert Almora, Cubs ($1.575MM)
Delino DeShields, Indians ($2.1MM)
Brian Goodwin, Reds ($2.7MM)
Guillermo Heredia, Mets ($1.3MM)
Right Fielders
Ben Gamel, Brewers ($1.7MM)
Nomar Mazara, White Sox ($5.7MM)
Tyler Naquin, Indians ($1.8MM)
Jace Peterson, Brewers ($700K)
Hunter Renfroe, Rays ($3.7MM)
Designated Hitters
Jose Martinez, Cubs ($2.1MM)
Daniel Vogelbach, Brewers ($1.4MM)
Starting Pitchers
Tyler Anderson, Giants ($3.7MM)
Yonny Chirinos, Rays ($1.6MM)
Chi Chi Gonzalez, Rockies ($1.2MM)
Jon Gray, Rockies ($5.9MM)
Robert Gsellman, Mets ($1.3MM)
Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox ($1.7MM)
Steven Matz, Mets ($5.1MM)
Carlos Rodon, White Sox ($4.5MM)
Jose Urena, Marlins ($3.9MM)
Vince Velasquez, Phillies ($4.0MM)
Trevor Williams, Pirates ($3.5MM)
Right-Handed Relievers
Justin Anderson, Angels ($700K)
Matt Andriese, Angels ($1.9MM)
Shawn Armstrong, Orioles ($800K)
Matt Barnes, Red Sox ($4.1MM)
Ryan Brasier, Red Sox ($1.0MM)
John Brebbia, Cardinals ($800K)
Austin Brice, Red Sox ($700K)
Luis Cessa, Yankees ($1.1MM)
Adam Cimber, Indians ($800K)
A.J. Cole, Blue Jays ($800K)
Jairo Diaz, Rockies ($800K)
Seranthony Dominguez, Phillies ($900K)
Carlos Estevez, Rockies ($1.5MM)
Michael Feliz, Pirates ($1.1MM)
Trevor Gott, Giants ($700K)
Junior Guerra, Diamondbacks ($2.8MM)
Ben Heller, Yankees ($700K)
Jonathan Holder, Yankees ($900K)
Corey Knebel, Brewers ($5.125MM)
Luke Jackson, Braves ($1.9MM)
Joe Jimenez, Tigers ($1.0MM)
Keynan Middleton, Angels ($900K)
Luis Perdomo, Padres ($1.0MM)
Colin Rea, Cubs ($1.0MM)
Hansel Robles, Angels ($3.9MM)
Glenn Sparkman, Royals ($600K)
Robert Stephenson, Reds ($600K)
Nick Tropeano, Mets ($700K)
Ryan Weber, Red Sox ($900K)
Dan Winkler, Cubs ($900K)
Left-Handed Relievers
Scott Alexander, Dodgers ($1.0MM)
Alex Claudio, Brewers ($2.0MM)
Grant Dayton, Braves ($800K)
Wandy Peralta, Giants ($1.0MM)
Kyle Ryan, Cubs ($1.2MM)
Chasen Shreve ($800K)