Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for ten years. This winter, due to the pandemic and 60-game MLB season, there’s more uncertainty than ever with arbitration, as I explained here.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players – a method I hope to illustrate with examples later this winter. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, I should note that even in a normal year, our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
This winter, those involved in the process do not know how arbitration will account for the 60-game season, nor is there an agreement in place between MLB and the MLBPA on how to address it. Many cases may end up getting resolved in a hearing room. To reflect that uncertainty, we’re providing three projections for each player:
- Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season
- Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.
- Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise
Keep in mind that with a potential record number of non-tenders, many of these players will be released by December 2nd.
If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.
Angels (12)
- Justin Anderson – $700K / $700K / $700K
- Matt Andriese – $1.8MM / $2.8MM / $1.9MM
- Cam Bedrosian – $2.8MM / $3.0MM / $2.9MM
- Dylan Bundy – $5.9MM / $9.8MM / $6.8MM
- Andrew Heaney – $5.0MM / $8.0MM / $5.7MM
- Mike Mayers – $800K / $1.5MM / $800K
- Keynan Middleton – $1.0MM / $1.1MM / $900K
- Shohei Ohtani – $2.1MM / $3.0MM / $2.1MM (using hitter model)
- Felix Pena – $800K / $1.3MM / $800K
- Noe Ramirez – $1.1MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
- Hansel Robles – $3.85MM / $4.1MM / $3.9MM
- Max Stassi – $1.8MM / $2.5MM / $1.4MM
Astros (6)
- Carlos Correa – $8.0MM / $10.2MM / $8.8MM
- Chris Devenski – $2.1MM / $2.1MM / $2.0MM
- Aledmys Diaz – $2.8MM / $3.1MM / $2.8MM
- Dustin Garneau – $700K / $800K / $700K
- Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.7MM / $7.0MM / $5.2MM
- Roberto Osuna – $10.0MM / $10.0MM / $10.0MM
Athletics (10)
- Chris Bassitt – $3.1MM / $5.6MM / $5.5MM
- Mark Canha – $5.4MM / $8.2MM / $6.1MM
- Matt Chapman – $2.9MM / $4.3MM / $2.9MM
- Tony Kemp – $900K / $1.2MM / $900K
- Sean Manaea – $4.2MM / $6.4MM / $4.7MM
- Frankie Montas – $1.6MM / $2.4MM / $1.6MM
- Matt Olson – $3.5MM / $6.4MM / $3.5MM
- Chad Pinder – $2.2MM / $2.4MM / $2.2MM
- Burch Smith – $600K / $800K / $600K
- Lou Trivino – $900K / $1.1MM / $900K
Blue Jays (3)
- Teoscar Hernandez – $2.7MM / $5.3MM / $2.7MM
- Travis Shaw – $4.2MM / $5.4MM / $4.5MM
- Ross Stripling – $2.5MM / $3.7MM / $2.7MM
Braves (8)
- Johan Camargo – $1.9MM / $2.3MM / $1.9MM
- Grant Dayton – $900K / $1.0MM / $800K
- Adam Duvall – $4.4MM / $7.1MM / $4.7MM
- Max Fried – $2.4MM / $4.6MM / $2.4MM
- Luke Jackson – $1.9MM / $2.1MM / $1.9MM
- A.J. Minter – $1.1MM / $1.6MM / $1.1MM
- Mike Soroka – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM
- Dansby Swanson – $4.3MM / $8.3MM / $5.0MM
Brewers (10)
- Dan Vogelbach – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
- Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM / $3.8MM / $2.8MM
- Alex Claudio – $2.0MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM
- Ben Gamel – $1.7MM / $2.1MM / $1.7MM
- Josh Hader – $4.5MM / $6.8MM / $5.1MM
- Ryon Healy – $1.0MM / $1.0MM / $1.0MM
- Corey Knebel – $5.125MM / $5.125MM / $5.125MM
- Omar Narvaez – $2.725MM / $3.1MM / $2.9MM
- Manny Pina – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM
- Brandon Woodruff – $2.3MM / $4.5MM / $2.3MM
Cardinals (6)
- Harrison Bader – $1.2MM / $1.7MM / $1.2MM
- John Brebbia – $800K / $800K / $800K
- Jack Flaherty – $2.2MM / $3.0MM / $2.2MM
- John Gant – $1.5MM / $1.9MM / $1.5MM
- Jordan Hicks – $900K / $900K / $900K
- Alex Reyes – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
Cubs (12)
- Albert Almora Jr. – $1.575MM / $1.575MM / $1.575MM
- Javier Baez – $10.0MM / $11.9MM / $10.7MM
- Kris Bryant – $18.6MM / $18.6MM / $18.6MM
- Victor Caratani – $1.2MM / $1.6MM / $1.2MM
- Willson Contreras – $5.0MM / $7.4MM / $5.6MM
- Ian Happ – $2.5MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM
- Colin Rea – $1.0MM / $1.6MM / $1.0MM
- Kyle Ryan – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.2MM
- Kyle Schwarber – $7.01MM / $9.3MM / $7.9MM
- Ryan Tepera – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.1MM
- Dan Winkler – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $900K
- Jose Martinez – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.1MM
Diamondbacks (5)
- Caleb Smith – $1.3MM / $1.6MM / $1.3MM
- Silvino Bracho – $600K / $600K / $600K
- Junior Guerra – $2.7MM / $3.3MM / $2.8MM
- Carson Kelly – $1.3MM / $1.8MM / $1.3MM
- Luke Weaver – $1.5MM / $2.3MM / $1.5MM
Dodgers (7)
- Scott Alexander – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
- Austin Barnes – $1.4MM / $1.7MM / $1.3MM
- Cody Bellinger – $11.5MM / $15.9MM / $13.1MM
- Walker Buehler – $2.3MM / $3.1MM / $2.3MM
- Dylan Floro – $900K / $1.2MM / $900K
- Corey Seager – $9.3MM / $15.0MM / $10.4MM
- Julio Urias – $1.6MM / $3.0MM / $1.7MM
Giants (9)
- Daniel Robertson – $1.2MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
- Tyler Anderson – $2.4MM / $4.3MM / $3.7MM
- Alex Dickerson – $2.0MM / $3.3MM / $1.8MM
- Jarlin Garcia – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K
- Trevor Gott – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
- Reyes Moronta – $800K / $800K / $800K
- Wandy Peralta – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
- Austin Slater – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.1MM
- Donovan Solano – $2.2MM / $3.8MM / $2.3MM
Indians (7)
- Austin Hedges – $3.0MM / $3.1MM / $3.0MM
- Adam Cimber – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
- Delino DeShields – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $2.1MM
- Francisco Lindor – $17.5MM / $21.5MM / $19.0MM
- Phil Maton – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
- Tyler Naquin – $1.8MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
- Nick Wittgren – $1.4MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM
Mariners (5)
- J.P. Crawford – $1.3MM / $2.4MM / $1.3MM
- Carl Edwards Jr. – $1.2MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
- Mitch Haniger – $3.0MM / $3.0MM / $3.0MM
- Matt Magill – $700K / $800K / $700K
- Tom Murphy – $1.6MM / $1.6MM / $1.6MM
Marlins (9)
- Jesus Aguilar – $3.6MM / $6.1MM / $3.9MM
- Jorge Alfaro – $1.7MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
- Brian Anderson – $2.2MM / $4.3MM / $2.2MM
- Garrett Cooper – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM
- Yimi Garcia – $1.4MM / $1.8MM / $1.4MM
- Ryne Stanek – $800K / $800K / $800K
- Drew Steckenrider – $800K / $800K / $800K
- Jose Urena – $3.8MM / $4.2MM / $3.9MM
- Richard Bleier – $1.1MM / $1.5MM / $1.1MM
Mets (12)
- Guillermo Heredia – $1.4MM / $1.5MM /$1.3MM
- Michael Conforto – $9.0MM /$13.6MM / $10.1MM
- J.D. Davis – $1.7MM / $2.9MM / $1.7MM
- Edwin Diaz – $5.1MM / $6.5MM / $5.6MM
- Robert Gsellman – $1.2MM / $1.4MM / $1.3MM
- Seth Lugo – $2.2MM / $3.1MM / $2.4MM
- Steven Matz – $5.0MM / $5.3MM / $5.1MM
- Brandon Nimmo – $3.0MM / $5.2MM / $3.3MM
- Amed Rosario – $1.8MM / $2.6MM / $1.8MM
- Dominic Smith – $1.9MM / $3.6MM / $1.9MM
- Noah Syndergaard – $9.7MM / $9.7MM / $9.7MM
- Miguel Castro – $1.3MM / $1.8MM / $1.3MM
Nationals (5)
- Wilmer Difo – $1.0MM / $1.0MM / $1.0MM
- Joe Ross – $1.5MM / $1.5MM / $1.5MM
- Juan Soto – $4.5MM / $8.5MM / $4.5MM
- Michael A. Taylor – $3.4MM / $3.8MM / $3.5MM
- Trea Turner – $9.4MM / $16.6MM / $10.8MM
Orioles (6)
- Hanser Alberto – $2.3MM / $4.1MM / $2.6MM
- Shawn Armstrong – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
- Trey Mancini – $4.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.8MM
- Renato Nunez – $2.1MM / $3.9MM / $2.1MM
- Anthony Santander – $1.7MM / $3.0MM / $1.7MM
- Pedro Severino – $1.4MM / $2.3MM / $1.4MM
Padres (9)
- Dan Altavilla – $700K / $900K / $700K
- Zach Davies – $6.3MM / $10.6MM /$7.2MM
- Greg Garcia – $1.6MM / $1.7MM / $1.6MM
- Dinelson Lamet – $2.3MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM
- Emilio Pagan – $1.2MM / $1.9MM / $1.2MM
- Luis Perdomo – $1.1MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
- Tommy Pham – $7.9MM / $8.1MM / $8.0MM
- Matt Strahm – $1.6MM / $1.9MM / $1.6MM
- Mike Clevinger – $4.4MM / $6.0MM / $4.8MM
Phillies (7)
- Seranthony Dominguez – $900K / $900K / $900K
- Zach Eflin – $3.3MM / $5.5MM / $3.7MM
- Rhys Hoskins – $3.4MM / $5.5MM / $3.4MM
- Andrew Knapp – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.0MM
- Adam Morgan – $1.8MM / $2.0MM / $1.7MM
- Vince Velasquez – $3.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.0MM
- Heath Hembree – $1.9MM / $2.2MM / $1.8MM
Pirates (17)
- Josh Bell – $5.1MM / $7.2MM / $5.7MM
- Steven Brault – $1.5MM / $2.5MM / $1.5MM
- Nick Burdi – $600K / $600K / $600K
- Kyle Crick – $800K / $900K / $800K
- Michael Feliz – $1.1MM / $1.1MM / $1.1MM
- Adam Frazier – $3.3MM / $5.2MM / $3.7MM
- Erik Gonzalez – $1.2MM / $1.9MM / $1.2MM
- Chad Kuhl – $1.3MM / $2.2MM / $1.4MM
- Luke Maile – $900K / $900K / $900K
- Colin Moran – $1.9MM / $3.3MM / $1.9MM
- Joe Musgrove – $3.2MM / $4.4MM / $3.4MM
- Jose Osuna – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
- Richard Rodriguez – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.1MM
- Jacob Stallings – $1.0MM / $1.4MM / $1.0MM
- Chris Stratton – $800K / $1.2MM / $800K
- Jameson Taillon – $2.3MM / $2.3MM / $2.3MM
- Trevor Williams – $3.2MM / $4.6MM / $3.5MM
Rangers (4)
- Joey Gallo – $4.7MM / $6.8MM / $5.3MM
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – $1.2MM / $2.3MM / $1.2MM
- Rafael Montero – $1.4MM / $2.5MM / $1.4MM
- Danny Santana – $3.6MM / $3.6MM / $3.6MM
Rays (9)
- Jose Alvarado – $1.0MM / $1.1MM / $1.0MM
- Yonny Chirinos – $1.6MM / $1.8 / $1.6MM
- Ji-Man Choi – $1.6MM / $2.1MM / $1.6MM
- Tyler Glasnow – $2.8MM / $5.1MM / $3.2MM
- Manuel Margot – $2.8MM / $3.6MM / $2.9MM
- Hunter Renfroe – $3.6MM / $4.3MM / $3.7MM
- Chaz Roe – $2.3MM / $2.6MM / $2.3MM
- Joey Wendle – $1.6MM / $2.7 / $1.6
- Ryan Yarbrough – $2.2MM / $3.6MM / $2.2MM
Red Sox (8)
- Matt Barnes – $3.7MM / $5.7MM / $4.1MM
- Ryan Brasier – $1.0MM / $1.6MM / $1.0MM
- Austin Brice – $700K / $900K / $700K
- Rafael Devers – $3.4MM / $6.3MM / $3.4MM
- Jose Peraza – $2.9MM / $3.2MM / $3.0MM
- Kevin Plawecki – $1.6MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
- Eduardo Rodriguez – $8.3MM / $8.3MM / $8.3MM
- Ryan Weber – $900K / $1.5MM / $900K
Reds (9)
- Brian Goodwin – $2.7MM / $3.6MM / $2.7MM
- Curt Casali – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
- Luis Castillo – $3.0MM / $5.8MM / $3.0MM
- Amir Garrett – $900K / $1.4MM / $900K
- Michael Lorenzen – $3.8MM / $4.4MM / $4.0MM
- Tyler Mahle – $1.5MM / $2.5MM / $1.5MM
- Robert Stephenson – $600K / $600K / $600K
- Jesse Winker – $2.0MM / $3.4MM / $2.0MM
- Archie Bradley – $4.3MM / $5.7MM / $4.7MM
Rockies (11)
- David Dahl – $2.5MM / $2.7MM / $2.6MM
- Jairo Diaz – $800K / $1.2MM / $800K
- Carlos Estevez – $1.5MM / $2.3MM / $1.5MM
- Kyle Freeland – $3.5MM / $5.5MM / $3.9MM
- Chi Chi Gonzalez – $1.2MM / $1.2MM / $1.2MM
- Jon Gray – $5.6MM / $6.5MM / $5.9MM
- Ryan McMahon – $1.7MM / $2.8MM / $1.7MM
- Antonio Senzatela – $2.2MM / $4.9MM / $2.2MM
- Raimel Tapia – $1.5MM / $2.6MM / $1.5MM
- Tony Wolters – $1.9MM / $2.2MM / $2.0MM
- Mychal Givens – $3.4MM / $4.3MM / $3.6MM
Royals (11)
- Franchy Cordero – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
- Hunter Dozier – $1.9MM / $2.9MM / $1.9MM
- Maikel Franco – $4.5MM / $8.0MM / $5.0MM
- Jesse Hahn – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM
- Jakob Junis – $1.5MM / $1.7MM / $1.5MM
- Brad Keller – $2.4MM / $4.3MM / $2.4MM
- Kevin McCarthy – $700K / $800K / $700K
- Adalberto Mondesi – $2.1MM / $3.8MM / $2.1MM
- Mike Montgomery – $3.1MM / $3.1MM / $3.1MM
- Jorge Soler – $7.4MM / $9.2MM / $8.0MM
- Glenn Sparkman – $600K / $600K / $600K
Tigers (9)
- Matthew Boyd – $5.5MM / $7.8MM / $6.2MM
- Jeimer Candelario – $1.7MM / $3.3MM / $1.7MM
- Jose Cisnero – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K
- Buck Farmer – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
- Michael Fulmer – $2.8MM / $3.2MM / $2.9MM
- Niko Goodrum – $1.6MM / $2.5MM / $1.6MM
- Joe Jimenez – $1.0MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM
- Jacoby Jones – $2.2MM / $2.8MM / $2.0MM
- Daniel Norris – $3.0MM / $3.4MM / $3.1MM
Twins (7)
- Jose Berrios – $4.8MM / $7.5MM / $5.3MM
- Byron Buxton – $4.4MM / $5.9MM / $4.1MM
- Tyler Duffey – $1.5MM / $2.6MM / $1.7MM
- Mitch Garver – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM
- Taylor Rogers – $4.8MM / $6.9MM / $5.3MM
- Eddie Rosario – $8.6MM / $12.9MM / $9.6MM
- Matt Wisler – $1.1MM / $1.8MM / $1.1MM
White Sox (7)
- Adam Engel – $1.0MM / $1.4MM / $1.0MM
- Jace Fry – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
- Lucas Giolito – $2.5MM / $5.3MM / $2.5MM
- Reynaldo Lopez – $1.7MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
- Evan Marshall – $1.3MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
- Nomar Mazara – $5.6MM / $5.9MM / $5.7MM
- Carlos Rodon – $4.5MM / $4.5MM / $4.5MM
Yankees (12)
- Luis Cessa – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
- Clint Frazier – $1.6MM / $2.6MM / $1.6MM
- Chad Green – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.6MM
- Ben Heller – $700K / $800K / $700K
- Jonathan Holder – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
- Aaron Judge – $9.2MM / $10.7MM / $9.3MM
- Tommy Kahnle – $2.7MM / $2.7MM / $2.7MM
- Jordan Montgomery – $1.2MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
- Gary Sanchez – $5.1MM / $6.4MM / $5.5MM
- Gleyber Torres – $2.5MM / $3.4MM / $2.5MM
- Giovanny Urshela – $3.5MM / $5.2MM / $3.5MM
- Luke Voit – $3.7MM / $7.9MM / $3.7MM