The D-Backs have opened discussions with rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll about a potential long-term extension, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Neither the numbers under consideration nor likelihood of a deal coming together are known, though Piecoro cautions no agreement appears imminent.
It’s no surprise to hear Arizona would like to keep Carroll around for even longer than their allotted six seasons of club control. The Snakes selected the 22-year-old in the first round of the 2019 draft and quickly saw him blossom into one of the sport’s most touted young players. Carroll combined for a .307/.425/.611 line in the minors last season, earning his first major league call in late August. He made it into 32 big league games, starting off with a .260/.330/.500 showing with four home runs through his first 115 plate appearances.
Carroll is now cemented on the major league roster. Arizona dealt Daulton Varsho to Toronto for young catcher Gabriel Moreno, thanks in large part to their surplus of left-handed hitting outfielders. Piecoro writes that Carroll is ticketed for left field work during the upcoming season, presumably leaving center field to Alek Thomas and right field to some combination of Jake McCarthy, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Kyle Lewis.
Among that group, none is more highly-regarded than Carroll. Each of Baseball America, ESPN and The Athletic slotted him among the game’s top three prospects this offseason, with The Athletic’s Keith Law naming him the sport’s best rookie talent. Carroll is regarded as a potential face-of-the-franchise player, with evaluators effusive in their praise for his contact skills, power and athleticism.
The D-Backs already control the Seattle native at least through the 2028 season. He won’t qualify for arbitration until after the 2025 campaign at the earliest. Arizona surely doesn’t envision sending Carroll back to the minors, though if he struggles and winds up demoted at any point, his path to arbitration and/or free agency could be delayed further.
Even if Carroll is in the majors to stay, the six-year control window means the Snakes aren’t facing any urgency to keep him off the market. That said, the chances of pushing back his path to free agency would only figure to decrease over time if Carroll performs at the level the organization expects.
It’s not uncommon for teams to try to hammer out early-career deals with young players of this caliber. A handful of players have signed extensions even before making their MLB debuts, with Luis Robert securing the largest guarantee among that subset of players. Robert — regarded by Baseball America as the game’s #2 prospect at the time — signed a six-year, $50MM guarantee that included a pair of club options over the 2019-20 offseason to extend Chicago’s window of control by two seasons. Carroll already has a bit of MLB success under his belt and is assured of a major league roster spot heading into next season. It stands to reason his camp would aim higher than the Robert deal, particularly since the extension market has advanced over the past couple years.
Rays shortstop Wander Franco and Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez have signed massive extensions within the last 14 months. Franco’s deal guaranteed $182MM over 11 years and included a club option for a 12th season. Rodríguez’s deal was more complex, guaranteeing $210MM over 12 years and including a number of club/player options that could keep him in Seattle for an eye-popping 18 seasons.
The Franco extension more closely aligns with where Carroll is at in his career. Rodríguez had already made Seattle’s Opening Day roster before signing his extension midway through last season. He was well on his way to the Rookie of the Year award and was certain to accrue a full year of service time, essentially putting him in the 1-2 year service bucket at signing.
Franco, on the other hand, signed his deal over an offseason when he had some MLB time but less than a full year of service. That makes Carroll an apples-to-apples comparison from a service perspective, although the Tampa Bay shortstop arguably had a stronger negotiating platform than the Arizona outfielder does now. Franco had played in a little more than twice as many MLB games as Carroll has, suiting up 70 times for the Rays during his debut season. He’d hit .288/.347/.463 with seven homers and a minuscule 12% strikeout rate over 308 regular season plate appearances and posted an OPS north of 1.100 in four playoff games.
That’s a more robust MLB résumé than Carroll has yet been able to accrue. Franco was also a year younger last winter than Carroll is now and arguably an even more highly-regarded prospect. Franco had ranked as the sport’s #1 prospect at Baseball America in both 2020 and ’21. He’d also played in 82 more minor league games than Carroll has. That’s attributable to a 2021 labrum tear for the Diamondback, one which required season-ending surgery after just seven High-A games.
Clearly, Carroll showed no ill effects of that procedure in 2022. He rebounded with an excellent season and is now universally regarded as one of the league’s top young talents. Yet Franco was probably a slightly safer long-term bet at the time of his contract — thanks both to the absence of any serious injuries on his history and his lengthier big league track record.
The Braves worked out a long-term deal with the eventual National League Rookie of the Year last summer as well. Michael Harris II signed for eight years and $72MM with a pair of club options in August. Harris had less than a year of service at the time of his deal but his eventual award win would earn him a full service year at season’s end. He’d already established himself as a Gold Glove caliber center fielder at the time of his contract, though his offensive projection is perhaps a bit more uncertain than Carroll’s. Harris carried an excellent .287/.325/.500 line in 268 MLB plate appearances at the time of his contract, albeit with some questions about the sustainability of his .345 average on balls in play.
Arizona’s long-term payroll outlook is wide open. The D-Backs have just $42MM in estimated commitments on the books by the 2024 season, according to Roster Resource. Only Ketel Marte has a guaranteed deal that runs beyond ’24, with respective salaries of $16MM, $16MM and $14MM between 2025-27. Arizona will open this season with a player payroll around $119MM, so there’s certainly room on the books for an extension for a player whom the organization views as a cornerstone.
That might all prove a moot point if Carroll and his camp aren’t anxious to negotiate a longer-term agreement. It’s possible he’d prefer to bet on himself to establish more of a track record before discussing an extension, particularly since he received a signing bonus worth just under $3.75MM out of high school. Whether negotiations progress will make for an interesting subplot to D-Backs’ camp over the coming weeks.