Alexander Volkanovski will just have to get over not becoming a two-division champion by reminding everyone that he’s still one of the most dominant titleholders in the UFC.
Fresh off of his first loss in almost a decade, “The Great” returns to action this Saturday at UFC 290 to defend his 145-pound belt against interim champion Yair Rodriguez. Depending who you ask, Volkanovski should have had his hand raised against lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, and it’s entirely possible they cross paths again; right now, Volkanovski has to worry about the next man up in the contender line.
And it could be Rodriguez’s day, if the history of the lighter weight classes is any indication. Volkanovski turns 35 in September and his challengers just keep getting younger and hungrier. Right now, Rodriguez appears to be at that perfect intersection of talent and experience, with his win over Josh Emmett confirming that he belongs at the top of the division. Maybe the very top, if he still has another gear to show off.
In the co-main event, flyweight champion Brandon Moreno faces his personal boogeyman, Alexandre Pantoja. This reckoning has been a longtime coming with Pantoja owning two previous wins over Moreno (one an exhibition bout on The Ultimate Fighter) and the stars finally aligning to get them back inside the octagon. Moreno just emerged triumphant in his four-fight series with Deiveson Figueiredo, but it’s the series with Pantoja that could define the next stage of his career.
In other main card action, Robert Whittaker faces Dricus Du Plessis in a bout that could determine the next middleweight title challenger, Jalin Turner takes on Dan Hooker in a catchweight bout after Turner missed weight, and blue-chip middleweight prospect Bo Nickal fights last-minute replacement Val Woodburn.
Plus, former UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler makes his final walk to the octagon when he fights Niko Price in a retirement bout to close out the prelims.
What: UFC 290
Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, July 8. The card begins with a four-fight early prelims portion on ESPN+ and ESPN2 at 6 p.m. ET, with continuing coverage of the four-fight prelim card on ABC, ESPN, and ESPN+ beginning at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings)
Alexander Volkanovski (1) vs. Yair Rodriguez (3)
Yair Rodriguez has got it all. Great striking, a confident ground game, and the kind of athleticism that has given him a leg up in every matchup since he won The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America over eight years ago.
But he’s not Alexander Volkanovski.
As much as I’ve love watching Rodriguez’s journey, I just don’t have the guts to pick against Volkanovski, who I consider to be the most complete fighter on the planet. If by some chance the striking isn’t going his way, you can fully expect Volkanovski to change tactics and use his wrestling to punish Rodriguez. It’s been a weakness of Rodriguez’s in the past, one we’ve seen as recently as in his win over Josh Emmett.
Volkanovski might not even need to go down that route. He can match Rodriguez strike for strike and, as with seemingly every Volkanovski fight, his short stature is rarely a detriment as he has deceptively long reach. Few adapt as well as the Australian champion and even if Rodriguez gets off to a fast start, I won’t be worried at all about Volkanovski composing himself and taking over in the championship rounds.
I’ve got Volkanovski convincingly winning a competitive decision that boosts the legacies of both men.
Pick: Volkanovski
Brandon Moreno (1) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (6)
Sometimes, a dude just has your number.
Alexandre Pantoja’s two wins over Brandon Moreno weren’t flukes. Much time has passed since their first and second meetings and I believe Moreno’s developmental arc has been as impressive as anyone’s, I’m just not confident that he’s leveled up enough to deal with Pantoja. There’s a physicality that Pantoja brings to this matchup that is difficult for Moreno to handle.
Moreno has grown man strength now, no question, but Pantoja has an almost Alex Pereira-esque ability to find a finish once he sees an opening. That’s a fitting comparison, given that Pantoja is essentially the Pereira to Moreno’s Israel Adesanya. Don’t underestimate the mental edge Pantoja has being up 2-0 in the series.
I’ve said before that it’s hard to beat an opponent three times at this level, but Pantoja has the offensive firepower to do it. I see Moreno having success the first three rounds, taking two of them comfortably, before Pantoja goes for broke in Round 4 and caps off a flurry with a submission to become the new flyweight champion.
Pick: Pantoja
Robert Whittaker (2) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (8)
Fine, I’ll be the one to say it: I don’t think it’s that crazy that Dricus Du Plessis can win this. I’m not picking him, but it’s not crazy.
The would-be No. 1 contender is tough as hell and relentless when he smells blood. That’s not the most technical breakdown of his style, but those are two traits that can take you a long way in this business. They would have taken Du Plessis all the way to a title shot if the matchmakers had any sense about them.
Instead, he has to get past Robert Whittaker, the de facto second-best middleweight in the world. And a championship opportunity still isn’t guaranteed for either man!
Du Plessis has to beat Whittaker anyway, which few are giving him a chance to do given that this is a stylistic nightmare for him. Whittaker deals with pressure as well as anyone and he has superb takedown defense, so Du Plessis will have a difficult time sustaining any significant offense. At least not without Whittaker driving fists right into those fancy new nostrils.
Fans should get a treat as Du Plessis marches forward zombie-like for much of the contest until Whittaker’s striking breaks him down in the third en route to a knockout.
Pick: Whittaker
Jalin Turner (11) vs. Dan Hooker
You can only force your body to cut extreme amounts of weight for so long before it catches up to you and I think the process has caught up to Jalin Turner. I’ve always been impressed at his ability to make 155 pounds (something he’d done seven times without a miss before Friday), so seeing him visibly struggle and come in heavy for his fight with Dan Hooker is troubling.
Even if Turner hadn’t missed weight, there’s plenty to like in this matchup for Hooker. Yes, Turner’s length and speed make him extraordinarily dangerous, but Hooker is long and lanky too and has been mastering the art of fighting at range since before Turner turned pro. I’m a little surprised at the disrespect Hooker is getting ahead of this fight, I can’t lie.
Hooker and his team will target Turner’s body in the hopes of exploiting whatever weakness his poor weight cut may have created. It will take time for that plan to pay dividends, but by the second round, you’ll see Turner slow down while Hooker ramps up the pressure. He finishes Turner before the start of the third and leave Turner seriously pondering a move to welterweight.
Pick: Hooker
Bo Nickal vs. Val Woodburn
Val Woodburn certainly looks the part of a UFC fighter. He’s stocky and muscular with big hands that look like they’re made to bust heads. One major problem: He’s not particularly quick and he’s going up against Bo Nickal, who might be the most explosive athlete in the middleweight division.
To have a chance against Nickal, you have to be light on your feet or you’ll quickly find yourself off of them, most likely kicking helplessly in the air before you’re slammed through the canvas. Everything about Woodburn’s style screams “heavy” from his build to his footwork and probably to his breathing if he manages to survive two rounds with the three-time NCAA wrestling champion.
All the credit in the world to Woodburn for accepting this fight on such short notice, but Nickal takes him down anytime he wants and finishes via ground-and-pound.
Pick: Nickal
Preliminaries
Niko Price def. Robbie Lawler
Tatsuro Taira def. Edgar Chairez
Yazmin Jauregui def. Denise Gomes
Jimmy Crute def. Alonzo Menifield
Vitor Petrino def. Marcin Prachnio
Terrence Mitchell def. Cameron Saaiman